Vanke A (000002): 2019 results expected to increase by more than 20%

Predicted average earnings growth of 25% We expect the company to initially return to its parent net profit of USD 42.2 billion in 2019, an annual growth of 25%, basically in line with market consensus expectations.

  Focus on the stability of profit margins, high certainty of performance growth.

We expect the company’s operating income to increase by 29% per year in 2019; the net profit margin attributable to the parent is 11%, which is unchanged from 2018.

Looking ahead, considering the company’s abundant unsold resources sold (by the end of the third quarter of 2019, the unsold unsold balance was 6,362 trillion, equivalent to 1 of CICC’s forecast revenue in 2020.

3 times), we think the company’s performance growth will decrease in 2020/2021 (expected 2020?
2021 annualized growth of 17%).

  The annual sales are eye-catching, and the initial sales are expected to impact 700 billion yuan.

The company announced that the contracted sales area in January was 3.34 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and this 549 trillion, an annual increase of 12% (Top5 / 10 housing companies gradually decreased 6% / 11%, Kererui caliber), corresponding to the average sales price rose7% to 16465 yuan / square meter.

We estimate that the company’s total saleable 厦门夜网 value in 2020 will be about 1 trillion yuan (8000 trillion new in 2020, plus 200 million US dollars of old goods rollover), and will gradually achieve 7000 trillion, corresponding to an 11% growth rate.

  Affected by the epidemic, the intensity of land acquisition in the first quarter was weak. After the second quarter, it tried to focus on the window of land replenishment.

The company added 700,000 square meters of new soil reserves in Shanghai, Chongqing and other cities in January, and then decreased by 75%. The total cost of new soil reserves continued to fall by 69% to US $ 3.8 billion, equivalent to only 7% in the same period (36 per year in 2019).%), Taking the average land price of 5482 yuan / square meter, equivalent to 33% of the average sales price in the same period (39% per year in 2019).

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, we expect the company’s overall land acquisition intensity to weaken in the first quarter; considering the subsequent cooling of the land market, we believe that the company will actively seek replenishment opportunities in the second quarter with abundant cash flow.

  The financial side is stable and high dividends are expected to continue.

At the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company had US $ 107.2 billion in cash on hand, which was equivalent to 1 due to bear interest within one year.

8 times, net debt ratio is 49%.

Considering the region obtained by the company in the fourth quarter of 2019 (the length of the region obtained in the fourth quarter decreased by 37% to 40 billion U.S. dollars, which is equivalent to 26%), we expect the company to reach a net reduction rate of 40% in 2019.%the following.

We expect the company to extend its dividend ratio of 35% in 2019/2020 (35% in 2017/2018), corresponding to a 2019 / 2020e dividend yield of 4.

5% / 5.

4%.

  Estimates and recommendations remain unchanged from 2019/2020/2021 earnings forecasts.

The company is currently leading the trade at 6.

The 5x 2020 forecast price-earnings ratio is near the negative standard deviation of the estimated center of the past three years.

Maintain Outperform industry rating and target price.

73 yuan, corresponding to 8.

5 times the target price-earnings ratio in 2020, which has 30% more upside than before.

  The risk has been eliminated, and the progress of the launch has fallen short of expectations; the advancement of diversified businesses has fallen short of expectations.