Changchun High-tech (000661): Jinsai’s stock exchange adjustment plan announces 100g technical dating measles vaccine
Event: On August 25, Changchun High-tech announced the “Report on Issuance of Shares and Convertible Bonds to Purchase Assets and Raise Supporting Funds (Revised) (Revised Draft)”, which focused on the shares and convertible shares in Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s stock exchange planThe debt lock-up period was adjusted for performance compensation plans.At the same time, the company announced that Bec Bio and Russia ‘s FORT Company signed a “Mutual License Agreement on Know-how”, and the two parties mutually licensed the technology for measles and chickenpox vaccine. Opinions: 1) Adjustment of unlocking ratio: The proportion 青岛夜网 of the three phases of unlocking of shares and convertible bonds of Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s share swap plan was originally 33%, 66% and 100%, and this time it was adjusted to 26.74%, 60.18% and 100%, the temporary unlocking rhythm of shares and convertible bonds will be more conducive to mobilizing the core core business enthusiasm, and it will also help protect shareholders’ rights and interests.2) Adjustment of performance compensation plan: The original performance compensation plan for Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s stock exchange is (gradual commitment of net profit-progressive realization of net profit) × the proportion of equity sold by Jinsai Pharmaceutical, which is adjusted to (gradual commitment of net profit-Gradually realize net profit) / commit to maximize net profit × the price of the underlying asset, and prioritize the use of shares or convertible bonds to compensate, and the difference will be compensated in cash.The adjustment of the performance compensation plan will greatly increase the amount of performance compensation, and the coverage of the compensation cap on the transaction consideration will reach 100%, which will be more conducive to protecting the interests of minority shareholders.Taking the assumption that the maximum realized net profit of 4 billion is taken as an example, the original plan compensation amount is 5.3.9 billion, the current program compensation amount will be increased to 18.8.1 billion.Considering that Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s performance continues to grow at a high speed, we believe that Jinsai Pharmaceutical is unlikely to fulfill its performance commitment. 3) 100 grams of biotechnology interchange: Chicken pox vaccine is the main product of Bai Ke Biological, this time the self-transfer of measles virus strains and production technology, will give Baike Biotech the ability to develop measles and chickenpox quadruped vaccines.Hemp gout-chickenpox quadruplet is the world’s largest polyploid variety. In 2018, Merck East Hemp gout-chickenpox quadruplet was a global heavyweight of about 1.8 billion US dollars. Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s stock exchanges are progressing in an orderly manner, and growth hormone is expected to continue to grow rapidly.There are not many adjustments in the share exchange plan of the Golden Race, and it is expected that the second feedback may be small, and the subsequent exchange of the Golden Race is expected to progress in an orderly manner.After the completion of Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s share swap, it is expected to bring double improvement in company performance and estimates: reorganization, corporate governance structure will be streamlined, core leadership initiative is also expected to be further improved, performance growth is expected to play space, and Jinsai PharmaceuticalTake 99.The consolidation of the 5% shareholding ratio will also further increase the profit of the company; the expansion and rationalization of Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s equity structure is also expected to bring the company’s expected level further.Jinsai Pharmaceuticals achieved revenue of 21 in 19H1.40,000 yuan, an increase of 41 in ten years.7%, net profit 8.20,000 yuan, an increase of 47 in ten years.7%.Considering the announcement that the number of new patients enrolled in Jinsai Pharmaceuticals continues to increase, meanwhile, the average medication time of overlapping patients is prolonged, and the proportion of long-acting water needles is increased. Jinsai Pharmaceuticals ‘efforts in the next 2-3 years will still strive to maintain rapid growth. The distribution of varicella vaccine batches has resumed markedly, and the vaccine product pipeline has been continuously enriched.Affected by factors such as the 18-year process improvement, rabies vaccine production ceased, plant relocation caused varicella vaccine capacity metabolism, and other factors, 100 grams of biological 19H1 effect is obvious.However, the new plant has completed the verification of the chickenpox vaccine pre-filling packaging line equipment and on-site filing, and put it into production. At the same time, according to the data of the National Institute of Inspection, the monthly batch of 100 grams of biological chickenpox vaccine has been restored to 60-800,000 vaccines are expected to improve significantly in the second half of the year.Therefore, we expect that the expected 19-year performance of Biogram will still reach last year’s level.In addition, the company’s nasal spray vaccine has begun on-site inspection preparations, and is expected to be approved in 19 years, and officially contribute profits in 20 years.The introduction of measles vaccine strains and production technology through technology interchange this time will further enrich the company’s vaccine product pipeline and provide an alternative basis for the development of measles and chickenpox quadruple vaccines. Investment suggestion: Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 375.00 yuan.Assuming that the completion time of Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s share swap is 19Q4, we expect the company’s revenue growth from 2019 to 2021 to be 28.3%, 29.5%, 22.1%, net profit growth rate was 53.4%, 63.8%, 23.8%, outstanding growth; given Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price is 375.00 yuan, equivalent to 50 times the dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2019. Risk reminders: Jinsai Pharmaceuticals risks of termination of 深圳桑拿网 share swap, market growth hormone growth is less than expected, core product price reduction risks, new drug development is less than expected, etc.