Shanxi Fenjiu (600809): Significant implementation of strategy

Introduction to this report: Performance is in line with expectations.

Both ends maintained rapid growth, waist products began to exert force, and the implementation of strategic implementation was obvious.

19Q1 cash flow improved significantly, and the target completion rate was high.

With the strengthening of senior executives’ cash incentives, the expected goals have been achieved.

Investment highlights: Investment advice: Lower Q1 2019-20 EPS forecast to 2 due to lower than expected Q1 performance.

22, 2.

78 yuan (2 last time).

69, 3.

49 yuan), plus EPS forecast 3 in 2021.

35 yuan, with reference to comparable companies to give 31 times PE in 2019, raise the target price to 70 yuan (the previous 46 yuan), increase holdings.

The 2018 performance was basically in line with expectations, and the first quarter of 2019 performance was slightly lower than expected.

Company revenue in 2018 was 93.

800 million, net profit attributable to mother 14.

700 million, an increase of 47.

5%, 54%; Cancelled 91% of the company’s revenue from the wine development zone.

100 million, net profit attributable to mother 14.

700 million, an increase of 50 in the same caliber.

8%, 55.

4%.

Merged into the low-end wine gross margin fell by 3.

6 points, the management and R & D expense ratio decreased by 2.

2pct, net interest rate is flat.

2019Q1 revenue 40.

500 million yuan, net profit attributable to mother 8.

800 million, the merger caliber increased by 19%, increased by 22.

5%.

In Q1, the gross profit margin increased by 1 pct and the sales 南京桑拿论坛 expense ratio increased by 3 pct, but the business tax / income was downgraded by 2.

9pct, net interest rate was basically flat.

19Q1 cash flow improved significantly due to discounted bills receivable of 1.7 billion.

The implementation effect of the strategy is obvious, and the proportion inside and outside the province is improved.

1) In 2018, the mid-to-high end increased by 53%, the blue and white is expected to increase by 60%, the old Baifen increased by approximately 30%, and the Panama Gold Award increased by approximately 30%.

2) The increase of low-priced wines by 60% is mainly due to the expansion of the caliber of low-end wines. Among them, it is expected that Bophin will increase by 35% and blended wines will increase by 51%.

2) In 19Q1, blue and white are expected to increase by 30%, Lao Baifen, and the gold award will increase by about 15%.

The proportion of income outside the province has increased from 43% to 47%, and the overall structure has improved. The surrounding Shanxi target is higher, which is still the main force for growth.

Improved cash incentives to ensure targets are met.

The company’s disclosed revenue target increased by more than 20%, and 37% of the planned target was achieved in the first quarter, which can be a good basis.

Incentives were implemented item by item in 2018, cash incentives for executives increased, and state reforms continued to release dividends to ensure that goals were achieved.

Core risks: downside risks to high-end wine prices, increased competition in markets outside the province