3%

Hot pot catering stocks collectively rebounded, Haidilao rose nearly 4% 北京养生 and Yihai International rose 6.

3%

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  News on February 11th, catering stocks rebounded collectively, Haidilao rose 3.
.

77%, Xiabu Xiabu increased 3.

03%, Yihai International rose 6.

34%, Jiu Mao Jiu rose 4.

31%.

  The long incubation period overlaps with the climax of rework after the festival, and the epidemic control may still face challenges. The lack of protective materials + high contagiousness, and “home” has become the main method for epidemic prevention and control. Catering, hotels, and tourism are the first to come.

Haidilao began to shut down on January 26, and there is no timetable for resumption of work; Jiu Maojiu’s subsidiary Taiji announced that it will be closed from January 26, and 夜来香体验网 there is no timetable at present; Xibei was interviewed and said that if the epidemic continues, cash flow can only supportThree months.

  Jiu Mao Jiu has temporarily closed all of its stores (including self-operated and franchised stores) from January 26, 2020.

On February 9, Jiu Mao Jiu (09922-HK) announced that in consideration of the latest development of the epidemic, in order to continue to strengthen the prevention and control of the virus, the board of directors announced that all stores (including self-operated and franchised stores) were temporarily closed.The time will be further extended.

The company will make further announcements on the date and progress of the store’s resumption in due course.

  Haidilao issued an announcement on January 28, 2020, and decided to temporarily suspend store operations in mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions) from January 26 to January 31.

Haidilao issued an announcement on February 2 stating that considering the recent development of the epidemic situation, in order to continue to cooperate with the epidemic prevention and control work, the closing time of stores in mainland China (except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions) will be extended.

After the time for resumption of business is determined, the company will make further announcements in due course.

  According to the analysis of CITIC Construction Investment He Yanqing (Jin Qilin analyst), due to the impact of the epidemic, the operating performance of Haidilao will be affected.

According to its forecast, the company’s 2020 revenue is expected to be 402.

8.7 billion, net profit attributable to mother 35.

93 trillion US dollars, it is estimated that the epidemic will cause the company to lose about 2020 revenue by about 50.

400 million, attributable to the mother’s net profit loss of about 5.

800 million yuan.

  It is worth noting that on February 8th, another catering giant Xibei announced that it had received SPDB.

A $ 200 million loan facility has been credited.

This has also led to outside speculation as to whether Haidilao will also be introduced by related investment.

  The impact of Huachuang Securities on the epidemic situation is calculated as follows: The original assumption was that the rent accounted for 12%, manpower was 27%, food ingredients were 35%, storefront depreciation and utility costs were 8%, restaurant OP was 18%, and headquarters expenses were 10pct as the overall template.

  Hypothesis 1: Optimistic hypothesis: the suspension of business for 15 days (new years and 30 years), after which the passenger flow resumes; during the suspension of business, employees are half paid, no ingredients are consumed, rents and depreciation remain the same.

Earns -4 per year.

2%, net profit (decreased based on the original net profit forecast, the same below) -5.

3%.

  Hypothesis 2: Neutral hypothesis: closed for 15 days, the passenger flow halved in the following month, and then resumed.

During the suspension of business, the staff will be paid at half rate, and the passenger flow will be halved during the period.

Earns -8 per year.

3%, net profit -14.

5%.

  Hypothesis 3: Pessimistic hypothesis: closed for 15 days, the passenger flow halved in the following three months, and then resumed.

During the suspension of business, the staff will be paid at half rate, and the passenger flow will be halved during the period.
Earns -16 per year.
7%, net profit -33.

2%.