Founder Securities: Liquor sector meets good opportunities under the influence of the epidemic

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  Original title: Liquor sector in the beverage manufacturing industry: Layout opportunities under the influence of the epidemic Source: Glonhui Institution: Founder Securities (right protection) 1, the epidemic has a direct impact on consumption, the liquor sector is separated, the GEM is strong, and the short-term market style is not foodDrink, but every time the bull market food and beverage will not be absent, patiently wait for the plate to rotate.

From the beginning of the new year, the nationwide isolation and closure, consumption scenarios such as catering, visiting relatives and friends have been cancelled, which directly affects the consumption of liquor and food with gifts. The post-holiday channel feedback is more pessimistic and affects market confidence.Technology, 5G, and new energy sectors have soared, with low attention to consumption.

  2. The risk is fully released. According to our calculations, the epidemic has affected the consumption of the liquor industry by about 15% and the income by about 10% in the past 20 years. The market expectations and performance have become overly pessimistic: the peak season of liquor generally starts from about two months before the Spring Festival, untilAfter the fifteenth of the first month of the year, the sales of manufacturers and channels have basically been completed before and after the holiday. The epidemic has the biggest impact on consumption during the period from New Year’s Eve to the sixth day of the consumer concentration period, and then the industry enters the low season.The marginal influence is small.

During the Spring Festival season, sales generally account for about 40% of combined consumption, and the actual proportion of bottled consumption during the Spring Festival holiday is relatively high, which is expected to be about 15%.

This year’s Spring Festival part of the consumption from the scope of polystyrene drinking to family small drinks, and some meals are divided, after the epidemic situation will appear compensation consumption, from the current market expectations and performance, the sector oversold, the risk is fully released.

  3. The pre-holiday performance of wine companies is basically completed, the channel conversion is smooth, and there is ample room for adjustment: the general sales rhythm of the industry is that the pre-holiday manufacturers and channel conversion are completed, the dealers have low inventory, and the sales are transferred to consumers and some terminals. LiquorThe three-level channel system of industry dealers, distributors, and terminals provides a thick buffer for manufacturers’ sales, especially the leading wine companies, and there is plenty of room for performance adjustment.

The first-line Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, regional leaders of this era, Gujing wine, Kouzijiao, Shanxi Fen wine and other pre-Spring Festival sales growth rate is relatively satisfactory, the company is highly motivated.

After the holiday, wine companies responded quickly to this epidemic, strengthened market investigations, learned about sales, and introduced relevant countermeasures to help dealers overcome 四川耍耍网 difficulties. Response measures included reducing the pressure on dealers and terminal performance. Maowuyu, Fenjiu and other companies also made clearThe statement states that “the highest task will not be downgraded.” At present, the impact of the epidemic on market psychological expectations is greater than the actual impact.

  4. The epidemic situation does not change the long-term upward trend of the industry, does not affect the intrinsic value of the enterprise, the industry price upgrade and the trend of brand concentration continue to strengthen.

After 30 years of marketization, after several crises, the development of the liquor industry has become increasingly mature, the inertia trend has passed between generations, and the demand for liquor has always existed; through economic development, the improvement of living standards, and the rise of brand awareness, people hope that “buy good, haveThe demand for “branded wines” has continued to increase, driving the price upgrade and brand concentration trend of the liquor industry to continue to strengthen.

This year’s impact belongs to the Black Swan incident. It does not change the intrinsic value of the company. After the epidemic has passed, the performance trend will continue, and high elastic growth will resume in 21 years. Most of the next year’s performance growth will be about 15 times.